Resnikoff's Parting Shot: Where's My Long Tail Playbook?
Amidst the dizzying chaos that is the music industry today, a fairytale exists. Somewhere, over the rainbow, a place exists for Long Tail artists everywhere to thrive financially, creatively, and with total independence.
But the success ratios for developing artists will continue to remain slim, at least over the short- and mid-term horizons. And breakout successes, however rare, will be difficult to capture and duplicate. In short, there is no Long Tail playbook for success, and there may never be one.
Sure, independent and unsigned artists now have unprecedented mechanisms for connecting and cultivating niche audiences. And loyal fans are a powerful bunch, especially when they start opening their wallets, attending shows, and spreading the word.
And, a constellation of easy-to-use, inexpensive services now exist. TuneCore can put your song onto iTunes overnight. And iLike can spread your profile across multiple networks just as quickly. CD Baby can sell your CD, and Zazzle can help you merchandise. Step the game up a little, and effective list management and smart targeting come into play. And P2P applications can quickly lubricate the word-of-mouth process.
But those steps set the stage for a possible breakout, they don't create one. And even if a band starts resonating with a targeted audience, cultivating a loyal following takes repetition, continued word-of-mouth, and lots of time. Just like before.
And, let's face it, most lack the creative capital to truly rally a meaningful following. Of course, every artist makes the best music in the world, just like every entrepreneur has the most revolutionary business model imaginable. And, totally unrealistic self-assessments are often required to overcome the endless naysaying that the world offers.
But in reality, very few have the winning musical charisma and creativity required to attract serious, devoted groups of fans. And, for that matter, most startups end up failing. Only a tiny sliver of new artists actually start a flame, and even fewer can keep it burning over time.
There are just too many bands, too many options for potential fans, and way too many distractions in the current, fragmented media landscape. And, a large percentage of new music is uninteresting, unoriginal, or uninspiring.
Then again, everyone has a different definition of success. And some artists are happy to be scraping by. Selling a few iTunes downloads here, the odd CD Baby disc there, a t-shirt every Thursday, a marginally-lucrative gig on Friday. And why not? Suddenly, this existence is possible.
But what about a higher level of musical existence? Truly breaking out, and enjoying both financial and critical success? Actually, breakouts are happening, but the path towards success for Long Tail artists remains chaotic, and mostly hit-or-miss. And that means that artists must remain scrappy, unbreakable, and committed to scoring the elusive big break - just like before.
Take the case study of Saul Williams. The hard-to-classify urban poet actually scored a nice purse on his recent album, but few saw it coming. And the story was so complicated and unpredictable that it remains almost impossible to duplicate.
Williams, with the assistance of Trent Reznor, started offering his album using the emerging name-your-price sales model. And after a few months, the results were mildly successful. Williams already had some name recognition, and perhaps a niche audience, though most were paying nothing for the album. And probably moving on to something else after that.
Then, something funny happened. An older track, "List of Demands," was featured within an inspirational Nike advertisement. The online experiment quickly careened past revenues of $300,000, and Williams embarked on a string of sold-out club dates. In his words, the experiment had a "marvelous result," thanks to a mix of unexpected factors.
In some ways, a fairytale ending. But a formula? Do enough homework, and you can figure out how to create a name-your-price proposition online. But a Nike ad? Artists like Junkie XL have done it, and even Dockers dusted off the vinyl on Marlena Shaw's "California Soul," just one of several reuses.
But Williams had other advantages, including a leading role in the 1998 film, Slam, a major label stint, and several high-profile touring opportunities. Perhaps not the most widely-recognized of artists, but Williams is hardly struggling at the extremes of the tail.
And those that are face a vexing, unpredictable and improbable path towards success. In contrast, head-of-the-tail artists like Radiohead and Trent Reznor are figuring and defining best practices, and broadcasting the best ways to excite existing crowds and profit in the process.
But for those toiling in obscurity, a playbook remains illusory - and success a difficult and rare result. That said, few can argue against some key ingredients, including proper distribution and promotion, a dogged determination to succeed, and truly amazing content. Some things never change, and probably never will.
Paul Resnikoff, Publisher.